The Prognostic Significance of Nomogram-Based Pretreatment Inflammatory Indicators in Patients With Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Receiving Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy.

BACKGROUND: At present, there is no objective prognostic index available for patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) who underwent intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT). This study is to develop a nomogram based on hematologic inflammatory indices for ESCC patients treated with IMRT. METHODS: 581 patients with ESCC receiving definitive IMRT were enrolled in our retrospective study. Of which, 434 patients with treatment-naïve ESCC in Fujian Cancer Hospital were defined as the training cohort. Additional 147 newly diagnosed ESCC patients were used as the validation cohort. Independent predictors of overall survival (OS) were employed to establish a nomogram model. The predictive ability was evaluated by time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves, the concordance index (C-index), net reclassification index (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed to assess the clinical benefits of the nomogram model. The entire series was divided into 3 risk subgroups stratified by the total nomogram scores. RESULTS: Clinical TNM staging, primary gross tumor volume, chemotherapy, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and platelet lymphocyte ratio were independent predictors of OS. Nomogram was developed incorporating these factors. Compared with the 8th American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging, the C-index for 5-year OS (.627 and .629) and the AUC value of 5-year OS (.706 and .719) in the training and validation cohorts (respectively) were superior. Furthermore, the nomogram model presented higher NRI and IDI. DCA also demonstrated that the nomogram model provided greater clinical benefit. Finally, patients with <84.8, 84.8-151.4, and >151.4 points were categorized into low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups. Their 5-year OS rates were 44.0%, 23.6%, and 8.9%, respectively. The C-index was .625, which was higher than the 8th AJCC staging. CONCLUSIONS: We have developed a nomogram model that enables risk-stratification of patients with ESCC receiving definitive IMRT. Our findings may serve as a reference for personalized treatment.

Influence of age as a continuous variable on survival outcomes and treatment options in patients with upper thoracic esophageal carcinoma.

Background: This retrospective review of patients with upper thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) analyzed the prognostic value of age, as a continuous variable, and offered insight into treatment options. Methods: 568 upper ESCC patients underwent radical therapy between 2004 and 2016. Age as a continuous variable was entered into the Cox regression model with penalized spline (P-spline) analysis to investigate a correlation between age and survival outcomes. Results: Before adjustment, P-spline regression revealed U-shaped survival curves. Sixty years was the optimal cut-off age for differences in overall and progression-free survival (OS, PFS). The cohort was divided into age groups ≤ 50, 51-69, and ≥ 70 years. Multivariate analyses showed no significant differences in either PFS or OS for patients aged ≤ 50 and 51-69 years. After adjusting for covariates, P-spline regression showed that the risk of mortality and disease progression increased with age, and ≥ 70 years was an unfavorable independent prognostic factor. For age ≥ 70 years, the OS and PFS associated with non-surgery was comparable to that of surgery. For patients younger, the OS and PFS of patients given surgery was significantly better than that of patients given non-surgery. Conclusion: Age was an independent prognostic factor for upper ESCC. Patients ≥ 70 years achieved no significant survival benefit from surgery, but for those younger than 70 years surgery was the preferred treatment option.